IIT's 2022 Midterm Election Projection

It’s time to vote America.

The 2022 Midterm Elections come this Tuesday, the 8th of November, with a strong battle afoot for control of the U.S Senate and House of Representatives as well as numerous governorships, state legislatures, and local races. While you might be accustomed to look for data-driven analysis of what’s going to happen in the elections on sites like FiveThirtyEight.com or RealClearPolitics.com, IIT, believing that we can do it better, has decided to launch its own forecast projections of election results. While of course the ultimate outcomes cannot really be known until they happen, we have people on our staff who are really good at math and have good calculators so we think we can give a you good outline of what to expect.

Here’s our forecast (as of 11/6/22):

Who’s Going to Win?

Why, somebody of course.

I Mean, More Precisely, Which Party Will Control Each Part of Congress?

Glad you clarified. The one that gets the most votes for those states which actually decide to host an election. Most pollsters and pundits fall into the trap of assuming that there will be an election in every state and every district. That’s a big sin of presumption. How can we be sure, that, for example, the “blood-Moon” forecast to be visible on Earth on Election Day won’t make some state officials just say, “I give up. I’ve had enough. We’re not wasting our time doing these anymore? Or what if a state just decides that elections cost too much money and make you have to stay up late and also just decide that they’re not going to have one? Or what if a state is too busy with the Canonization proceedings for its governor? Or what if we discover a new state or two somewhere out in the ocean or the West that decides to have an election? That would mess with the results enough to give a different outcome. There are all sorts of scenarios that mainstream pundits just aren’t considering. But we are.

Our high level forecast, summarized in this chart below shows that 39 out of the current 50 states (although we’re projected to have somewhere between 53 and 55 states give or take the United Kingdom, Israel, Ukraine, and Taiwan by Tuesday) will have regular standard traditional elections with all the fixing and fun you’re used to in the past.

That means most states and districts around the country will get the whole shebang of attacks on candidates offices, stops and starts in vote counting, burst pipes destroying ballots, several recounts, at least one insurrection per state, and several congressional investigations. Oh, and they’ll also get a winner or a “winner”.

Six states, however, will opt for the cheaper solution of reusing already tried and true election results from 2020. Simple, easy, quick.

California is not elected to host an election Tuesday due to it’s long projected slide into the Pacific Ocean expected to occur Monday evening.

Montana has decided to just not elect anybody this year, both to save money and to save drama. They think no one will notice, or care.

Alaska will attempt to have its election, but will ultimately have to cancel it due to a spate of bear attacks on polling places as well as the difficulty of tabulating votes with its ranked-choice voting. People just can’t count accurately when they’re running for their lives.

Texas’s election will be postponed until after Wednesday due to a mandatory barbeque and target shoot for all citizens.

Florida’s election will be postponed indefinitely due to all the work required for the canonization of the current governor.

Meanwhile, a new state will be discovered somewhere, most likely in the Atlantic Ocean, and it will need two senators, several U.S. representatives, a governor, etc. but since it hasn’t been discovered yet we don’t know who these candidates will be let alone their chances of winning.

Finally, the deciding vote for control of the U.S. Senate is expected to fall to China. For some reason…